Recently, the government introduced initiatives to bolster farmers’ incomes directly. In April 2023, the Chinese government allocated 10 billion yuan (approximately 1.38 billion USD), in one-time financial subsidies for farmers.[54] However, despite these efforts, attracting younger generations to the farming profession remains a challenge. As recently as 2019, studies have shown that aging populations in rural areas continue to place a drag on agricultural productivity and negatively affect agricultural wages.[55]
Technological and Productivity Issues
China’s agricultural landscape is uniquely characterized by the prevalence of small family farms dispersed throughout the country, rather than the large factory-farming models in many developed countries. While this model is a cornerstone of the Chinese economy, providing employment to millions, the fragmented nature of farms complicates the dissemination of new agricultural technologies and makes coordination among farmers, standardization of practices, and effective marketing difficult.[56]
To bridge this divide, China launched the National Agricultural Technology and Education Cloud Platform in 2015. This digital platform promotes knowledge sharing and independent learning among agricultural workers. Farmers provide data on crops, pests, and on-the-ground conditions, and in return they can access online training courses, diagnostic AI, and helplines.[57] Start-ups for strategic AI technologies can tell farmers which insects they are looking at with just a picture and which pesticides they should use to protect their crops.[58] The central government also dispatches specialized expert teams to provinces affected by natural disasters or falling behind in agricultural output to deliver on-the-ground support and promote the popularization of advanced agricultural technology.[59]
In the early twenty-first century, initiatives like expanding irrigation systems propelled China’s agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth—from under 1 percent in the 1970s to an average of 2.48 percent from 2001 to 2010. However, this expansion has fallen in the years since, as China has been unable to maintain a steady rate of agricultural TFP growth through continued policy improvements and investments in agricultural research and development (R&D). China still outperforms every other region except South Asia and the so-called transition countries (former Soviet Union) for agricultural TFP growth, but it will have to work increasingly hard to maintain this advantage.[60] China’s public sector expenditures on agricultural R&D were approximately 6.6 billion USD in 2021, larger than those of India, the United States, and Brazil combined. However, in the United States, the private sector accounts for an additional 15 to 20 billion USD, while in China this number is functionally zero.
In response to the productivity conundrum, China has embraced R&D solutions. Substantial financial inflows have been directed toward hybrid seed technologies, particularly in the domain of hybrid rice, corn, soybeans, and wheat. China also established “core areas” for production of certain products (e.g., potatoes in Southeast China, double-cropping rice in the Yangtze River Economic Belt).[61] In 2021, amendments to China’s Seed Law strengthened the protection of legal rights and interests of owners of new plant varieties, encouraging R&D of seeds.[62]
Climate Change
China’s agricultural sector is heavily exposed to climate change. Between 1981 and 2010, shifting climate patterns and ozone pollution collectively slashed China’s crop yields by 10 percent, an annual loss of 55 million tons of crops.[63] As temperatures rise, extreme weather events, melting glaciers, environmental degradation, and water scarcity and contamination will intensify the implications for China’s agriculture.
China’s focus has been on building resilience and adaptation mechanisms to confront these challenges and shoring up the system’s response to natural disasters. Throughout the 2010s, China made significant investments in mega projects to ameliorate the effects of climate change.[64] More recently, there has been a palpable shift toward promoting the green development of agriculture and encouraging farmers to switch to higher-yield and stress-resistant crops.[65] China is also looking to the oceans to bolster food security, as evidenced in a series of recent initiatives aimed at promoting and streamlining marine aquaculture. In November 2017, the Ministry of Agriculture unveiled the National Mariculture Development Plan (2017–2025). As per this blueprint, China aspires to establish 200 national-level demonstration marine ranches by 2025.[66] In April 2023, President Xi coined the term “blue granary” to describe marine fisheries and mariculture, specifically deep-sea fishing and ranching. Shortly thereafter, Chinese authorities released guidelines on deep-water aquaculture as a key piece of fortifying the agricultural supply chain.
Food Waste
Between 2014 and 2018, an estimated 27 percent of all food in China was lost or wasted, comparable to global averages.[67] Food waste and loss can occur at any point in the supply chain, from death of livestock to crops damaged by improper storage to expired products thrown out in households.[68] China has made a concerted effort to address food waste through a series of “campaign-style” reforms. In August 2020, President Xi Jinping launched the “Clean Your Plate Campaign 2.0,” modeled on an earlier homonymous anti-corruption initiative.[69] Following the “Clean Your Plate Campaign 2.0,” China introduced the Anti-Food Waste Law in April 2021. This State Council–spearheaded initiative included educational campaigns, regulatory measures against businesses, the introduction of systems for enhanced procurement, storage, and handling practices, and methods for increasing efficiency in food production, with relevant incentives and penalties.[70]
Geopolitical Dynamics
Following geopolitical shocks including the 2017 trade war with the United States, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has sought to reduce its exposure to external dependencies. This strategy includes ramping up international land acquisition, increasing bilateral and multilateral trade deals, diversifying international supply chains, expanding overseas agricultural activities through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and encouraging domestic companies to take their operations global.[71]
While Chinese acquisition of farmland in the United States has garnered attention in Washington, most of its international land purchases are in Asia and Africa. According to Land Matrix, a European land monitoring organization, between 2011 and 2020 Chinese companies purchased or leased 6.48 million hectares of land for agriculture, forestry, or mining—equivalent to the size of Latvia.[72] Chinese companies purchase arable land in other countries and sell their products back to consumers in China through individual deals as well as through BRI projects and other similar initiatives; China has signed over 100 agricultural cooperation agreements with BRI countries.[73]
link